Sunday’s prime-time NFL game features an outstanding matchup between two AFC West sides, and we’re here to provide a Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction.
The Chiefs (7-2, 1st in the AFC West) have won three games in a row, including a home win last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. On the flip-side, the Chargers have dropped two of their past three games, capped off by a 22-16 home loss against the 49ers in Week 10.
As it stands, the Chiefs are a consensus five-and-a-half-point favorite on Sunday with the total set at 52 points.
LEAN Chargers +5.5 Points (-110)
Historically, the Chargers have done very well to stay within a possession of the Chiefs, but there’s so many unknowns with this side.
Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were limited in practice this week and are questionable to play Sunday against Kansas City. If either or both of those players are out come Sunday evening, that will undoubtedly hinder Los Angeles’ ability to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that sits 22nd in pass defense DVOA, per footballoutsiders.com.
In the first meeting between these sides, receivers not named Williams or Allen, the latter of whom missed the game, accounted for only 14 catches for 157 yards. Although those receivers also scored two touchdowns, those are alarming numbers to say the least for an offense that’s currently 24th in offensive DVOA.
All that said, this Chargers defense has proved to be a reliable unit this season. Last week against the 49ers, Los Angeles limited the 49ers — a side currently 14th in offensive DVOA — to only 22 points. Plus, in three games against top-10 offensive DVOA sides, two of which came away from home, the Chargers have allowed more than 30 points only once.
Additionally, Los Angeles ranks 12th in pass defense DVOA. Although the Chiefs sit second in the corresponding offensive category, I’m cautiously optimistic Los Angeles can stand pat against Patrick Mahomes and company.
Finally, for as outstanding as Mahomes has played in his career, he’s struggled to cover as a big favorite. Across his past 60 games where his team is higher than a field-goal favorite, he’s a meager 28-31-1 ATS.
Furthermore, Mahomes is 1-5 ATS following a win this season and 15-20 ATS after a win since 2020.
By no means is there a lot of confidence associated with this play, but I lean to the Chargers and would bet them if they ticked up to +6.
