Week 1 is typically a time for optimism in the NFL. But some fan bases should be more excited about the tailgating than expecting their favorite team to hoist the Lombardi trophy at Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium after Super Bowl LVIII.
Uncertainty about the quality of quarterback play is one of the recurring themes among the five teams with the worst odds of becoming world champions, as listed by BetMGM.
Whereas the teams with the best odds of winning the game all tend to have quarterbacks with proven track records, the signal callers for the bottom five teams are dealing with injuries, like the Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, or are young, unproven players, like the Indianapolis Colts’ Anthony Richardson and the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud.
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Here’s a look at the five teams with the worst odds to win next February’s game.
Arizona Cardinals: +40000
The Cardinals simultaneously announced Monday they were putting Murray on the Physically Unable to Perform list and cutting veteran quarterback Colt McCoy. DraftKings Sportsbook responded by dropping its under/under win total by one game from 4.5 to 3.5 games and doubling the Cardinals’ odds of winning the Super Bowl, from 20000 to 40000, as the news broke.
The Cardinals will start rookie Clayton Tune or recently acquired quarterback Josh Dobbs. It’s not likely that Dobbs will pick up the offense in enough time to contribute to the team’s season opener.
Reasons for hope: With Murray’s ACL injury, it might be wise for rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon to sit him for the season.
The Cardinals have the Texans pick for the 2024 NFL draft, via trade. The Cardinals could have two top 5 picks or even the first two picks, based on the Texans likely being a cellar dweller. If you can’t win this season, plan for next year.
Houston Texans: +20000
Why they won’t win: The Texans won three games last season despite playing a schedule with five games against the teams in the bottom seven of losing records. It’s hard to ask Stroud, as a rookie quarterback, to overcome a substandard offensive line, unproven wide receivers and a rookie head coach and hope for a winning season.
The Texans had one of the worst defenses in the league last season. If the additions of linebackers Denzel Perryman and Cory Littleton and safety Jimmie Ward don’t dramatically improve the defense, it’s hard to imagine the Texans surpassing the 6.5-win projection from MGM Sportsbook.
Reasons for hope: Nico Collins is a talented wide receiver entering his second season with the Texans. Injuries stalled his momentum last season, but he’s been a favorite target for Stroud in preseason practices.
Edge rusher Will Anderson and linebacker Henry To’oTo’o were critical contributors to a stingy defense at Alabama under Nick Saban. Anderson is adept at rushing the quarterback. To’oTo’o can cover running backs out of the backfield in pass coverage and step up as a run stopper. Bringing the talented pair together in Houston could improve the defense enough to sneak out some wins.
Indianapolis Colts: +15000
Why they will lose: It’s unwise for a team with a 4-12-1 record last season and an offense that managed a meager 17 points per game, which was 30th in the NFL, to push its best offensive player out of the door. Well, Colts owner Jim Irsay is expressing his disagreement with conventional wisdom, with the team taking trade offers for running back Jonathan Taylor.
Offense wasn’t the only issue last season for the Colts. Their defense allowed 25.5 points a game, tied for fifth worst in football. Yannick Ngakoue was one of the bright spots last season for the Colts, with 9.5 sacks. Ngakoue is now with the Chicago Bears, further illustrating the Colts’ issues.
Reasons for hope: The Colts share a division with the previously mentioned Texans and (spoiler alert) the Tennessee Titans, who are next on this list. Somebody has to win when they compete against each other.
There’s a belief among league scouts that Richardson can benefit from working with former Eagles offensive coordinator and first-year Colts head coach Shane Steichen as a rookie. Steichen was successful in Philly with Jalen Hurts and helped Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert elevate his game.
Tennessee Titans: +10000
Why they will lose: Tennessee was 23rd in total defense, with 351.6 yards allowed per game last season. The Titans were worse on offense, racking up a third worst in the league, 296.8 yards per game average.
Adding linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and defensive end Arden Key won’t significantly change the Titans’ defense. The Titans’ fortunes could ride on the arm of quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
Reason for hope: Besides an easy schedule from being in the AFC South, the Titans have running back Derrick Henry in the backfield. Henry had 1,538 rushing yards on 359 carries last season and, in 2021, was the league’s offensive player of the year.
Henry averaged nearly 14 touchdowns a year over the past five seasons. He’s one of the sport’s best runners, and that’s worth a win or two. Remember, the Colts signed wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +10000
Why they will lose: Tampa Bay struggled to make the playoffs despite playing the woeful NFC South with Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady last season. Following his retirement, the Bucs will need help replicating what a player like Brady brings to a team. It’s hard to imagine Tampa making the playoffs even in the NFC South, which the Bucs won last season with an 8-9 record.
Reason for hope: Baker Mayfield went 2-3 with the Los Angeles Rams after Matthew Stafford went down with a season-ending injury. Mayfield had to learn the playbook on the fly since he was signed more than halfway through. If Mayfield can carry over some of his success with the Rams, he could make the Bucs competitive, assuming he beats out Kyle Trask for the starting job.
If Mayfield beats out Trask it could be a positive sign that the former No. 1 pick can be a viable quarterback in the league. If Trask wins the quarterback competition, it could signal that the youngster is ready to win games.
