2023 Kentucky Derby odds, predictions, contenders: Expert who nailed last year’s result releases top picks

Jockey Jose Ortiz will try to complete his personal Triple Crown on the back of Kingsbarns in the 2023 Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Ortiz recorded his first Triple Crown win when he rode Tapwrit to victory in the 2017 Belmont Stakes and finished first with Early Voting in the Preakness last year. The 29-year-old’s best finish in seven Kentucky Derby starts was second place with Good Magic in 2018, and he will now attempt to win “The Run for the Roses” when he rides Kingsbarns for the first time at the Kentucky Derby 2023. The three-year-old colt trained by Hall-of-Famer Todd Pletcher has won all three of his career starts and is 12-1 in the 2023 Kentucky Derby odds. Two other Pletcher entries are the top two 2023 Kentucky Derby horses in the odds, as Forte is the 3-1 favorite, while Tapit Trice is 5-1.

The 2023 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. With a wide-open field of 20 horses set to leave the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, you’ll want to see the horse racing predictions from racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu before making any 2023 Kentucky Derby picks.

Few people in racing are as well-connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders’ Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.

Yu also has tremendous handicapping chops. In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager last year, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won the Derby.

Since the end of February, she has crushed the Saudi Cup, riding a 15-1 winner to an $840 score, nailed Derma Sotogake to win the UAE Derby and hit the exacta in the Santa Anita Derby. Her return on investment over that time is $5.08 for every $1.

Now, Yu has handicapped the 2023 Kentucky Derby odds, made her picks and constructed her 2023 Kentucky Derby bets. Click here to see them.

Top 2023 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is low on the chances of Tapit Trice, even though he’s one of the top favorites. Purchased by Whisper Hill Farm for a whopping $1.3 million in 2021, Tapit Trice has not disappointed. After finishing third in his debut, he has won his last four races, including the Blue Grass Stakes last month.

Tapit Trice is a powerful late runner, but Yu does not believe that will benefit him on Saturday against a talented 2023 Kentucky Derby field. “There’s a reason only one late runner (Rich Strike) has won the Derby since 2014, and he needed a serious pace meltdown,” Yu told SportsLine. She is not using Tapit Trice in any of her 2023 Kentucky Derby bets. See who else to fade here.

Another shocker: Yu is loving Derma Sotogake, even though he’s a 10-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. No horse from Japan has ever won the Kentucky Derby, but that streak could end on Saturday, according to Yu.

“A son of champion sprinter Mind Your Biscuits, Derma Sotogake looked like the real deal in winning the UAE Derby,” Yu told SportsLine. “The UAE Derby hasn’t been a great steppingstone to the Run for the Roses, but the recent utter domination of international races by Japan leaves me thinking he is not impossible. I’m not in love with his draw, but he still remains a contender.” See who else to back here. 

How to make 2023 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Yu is also high on a massive longshot who “could cash a check with a good trip.” She is including this horse in her 2023 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So what horse wins the Kentucky Derby? What massive longshot is a must-back? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s 2023 Kentucky Derby picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who cashed last year’s winning ticket, and find out. 

2023 Kentucky Derby odds, horses