We’ve finally reached the end of our journey: the Stanley Cup Final. It’s the Vegas Golden Knights vs. the Florida Panthers — an exciting dark horse matchup very few could’ve seen coming.
That the two teams made it this far is a little surprising, but they’ve made it here on merit and that’s a result of star-turning performances from their best players. They’re players worthy of taking the Conn Smythe Trophy home.
The battle for playoff MVP will be a fierce fight to the bitter end of what should be a tightly-contested series, one that could go in either direction. The direction it goes will likely depend on which of the MVP favorites can take their team over the final stretch.
Who will win the Conn Smythe when all is said and done? Here are the top four candidates (plus a few dark horse options).
The case for Sergei Bobrovsky
The $10 million man finally looks like the $10 million man and the Florida Panthers are in the Stanley Cup Final because of it.
This is Sergei Bobrovksy’s fourth year as a Panther and to say it’s been an uneven tenure would be an understatement. Over 202 games Bobrovsky has seldom looked worthy of his big-ticket deal, frequently getting outplayed by his backups while earning a .905 save percentage and allowing 14 goals above expected. It’s been a disaster from Day 1, but it’s taken only 14 games in these playoffs to wipe that slate clean.
An 11-2 record. A .935 save percentage. Twenty-one goals saved above expected. Save after save after save. Redemption.
Bobrovsky wasn’t a world-beater against the Bruins, but he was as good as he needed to be for the Panthers to complete the 3-1 comeback. A steady presence. From then on he was an unbeatable force meeting an immovable object. He earned a .943 save percentage against the Leafs while saving 9.4 goals above expected and a .967 save percentage against the Hurricanes with 12.8 goals above expected. He was a brick wall stealing two series that should’ve been a lot closer than they actually were. When one goal the other way could’ve decided every game, he was the difference.
There are those who say Florida’s defensive scheme has made things easy on Bobrovsky and that talk has some merit. Private data suggests the goals saved above expected numbers overestimate Bobrovsky’s impact over the last two series. But even by those estimates, Bobrovsky has still been otherworldly.
He’s the biggest reason a Panthers team that’s been routinely outchanced in these playoffs has made it this far. Enough so that the Conn Smythe may be his to lose regardless of whether the Panthers win or not.
The case for Matthew Tkachuk
There are two reasons why Matthew Tkachuk should be the playoff MVP.
There’s the boring answer which is that he’s been really freaking good and all the numbers show that. Among skaters, he’s second in Net Rating at plus-5.3 to Roope Hintz which works out to an 82-game pace of plus-27. That pace is a shade ahead of his spectacular 2022-23 season where he was a finalist for the Hart Trophy. To get there he’s done what was needed to win playoff-style hockey, trading in his immaculate ability to drive offense first and foremost for a more balanced approach with and without the puck. Florida is not only scoring a lot with Tkachuk on the ice, the Panthers are also not allowing much the other way.
The end result is a guy earning 57 percent of the expected goals while outscoring opponents 14-5. It’s a guy with nine goals and 21 points in 16 games, one that creates a huge number of chances. It’s a guy allowing just 2.33 expected goals against per 60 and 1.1 actual goals against — both among the team lead. It’s a guy who’s doing it all, all over the ice.
Then there’s the more mystical answer: the one that speaks to his leading intangible clutch. There are times when all of those buzzwords feel meaningless, but not here. Not with how Tkachuk has put this team on his back. When his team has needed offense he’s been there. When his team has needed defense he’s been there. He’s a massive part of the vibe surrounding a team of destiny and it often feels like he’s at the center of that destiny.
It’s cool that his numbers are great, but it’s the timeliness and importance of how those numbers have been earned that make his playoff run this year so special. Back-to-back overtime goals against Carolina, plus the series clincher in the dying seconds of Game 4 is the stuff of fairy tale.
Skater Win Probability Added rankings entering the Stanley Cup Final. pic.twitter.com/0pjYocxKhg
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) May 30, 2023
This isn’t just Tkachuk’s legacy that’s being written in real time. It’ll forever be a part of the NHL’s lore and it doesn’t feel like he’s done putting his stamp on league history either. Tkachuk is on another planet right now, rightfully ascending to the league’s upper echelon with not just what he’s doing, but also how he’s doing it. Maybe that’s not more valuable than what Bobrosvky is doing, but it’ll probably be more memorable.
The case for Jack Eichel
Based on the numbers, Jack Eichel’s value in these playoffs is third on his own line. He may have the most points, but at five-on-five, he’s actually third behind both Jonathan Marchessault and Ivan Barbashev — both of whom have more goals than he does. Marchessault and Barbashev have both been on the ice for more goals than Eichel and have been on the ice for fewer scoring chances the other way. Analytically, it’s not difficult to see why a model might come away believing Eichel has been third fiddle on his own line.
But numbers that we have publicly aren’t everything and there’s a reason the “tie goes to the center” when it comes to attributing value. Visually it’s much more plain to see Eichel’s dominating impact with and without the puck. He’s been a full 200-foot player and the engine of his line, constantly making an impact at both ends of the ice.
We need to go more minute when it comes to Eichel and data tracked by Corey Sznajder goes a long way with that. Eichel leads Vegas in shot contributions thanks to his immense volume of set-up passes and he’s created the most chances off the rush by way of being the team’s most prolific puck transporter. Eichel has carried the puck in 64 percent of the time in these playoffs, one of just two Golden Knights over 50 percent (Chandler Stephenson is the other at 56 percent). All that (plus his ability to defend and exit his zone, plus the fact he’s a forecheck hound) leads to a microstat Game Score of 20 in these playoffs which leads Vegas by a very comfortable margin. Marchessault is at 15.5 while Barbashev sits at 13.8.
Eichel has been Vegas’ most visually impressive player and it’s been an absolute treat to watch him dominate his first trip to the playoffs. He may not have the biggest impact on overall five-on-five numbers, but real ones know who’s driving the bus there.
The case for Jonathan Marchessault
There’s an argument to be made that as good as Eichel has been, his linemate Marchessault has been even better. After a slow start to the postseason, Marchessault now only has one fewer point than Eichel and three more goals. Eichel has the edge when it comes to primary points thanks to seven of Marchessault’s eight assists being secondary — however, Marchessault has the edge at five-on-five with two more points there. His 14 five-on-five points leads the playoffs.
What gives Marchessault’s case a bit more jam is that his on-ice impact is better than Eichel’s has been. The duo has only spent 40 of their 240 minutes apart and in that time Marchessault managed a 4-1 advantage on the scoreboard while Eichel was outscored 2-1. By xG, Marchessault earned a preposterous 84 percent rate without Eichel, who was at 57 percent himself without Marchessault. That difference explains why Marchessault’s expected and actual goals percentage is significantly higher than Eichel’s in these playoffs despite spending around 83 percent of their time together. Marchessault is at 60.7 and 78 percent respectively while Eichel is at 58.2 and 71.2.
That’s a pretty sizeable chasm between the two and if it’s difficult to split hairs between them when they’ve played together so much, the way they’ve played apart matters. Marchessault has the better of the two’s numbers. Because of that, Marchessault’s Net Rating of plus-4.4 is a fair bit higher than Eichel’s plus-3.6.
What it all comes down to is this: Is it going to be the shiny new toy coming in thanks to Vegas’ all-in star-power approach, or is it going to be the favorite old toy that started the franchise’s legacy? Both feel equally worthy.
Dark horse candidates
Adin Hill: His save percentage is a touch above Bobrovsky’s, but the Vegas defense is doing a lot more work to help him get there. Still, saving 10 goals above expected in 11 games is a pretty big deal and a major reason Vegas got this far.
William Karlsson: Wild Bill leads all remaining players with 10 goals and has been on matchup duty for Vegas. That the Golden Knights have outscored teams 14-5 with him on the ice despite a steady diet of the league’s best players is miraculously good.
Carter Verhaeghe: If Florida wins we know the Conn Smythe is going to Bobrovsky or Tkachuk, full stop. But if the series goes long enough and those two get cold — there’s room for Carter Verhaeghe to be the hero. He’s second on the team in points with 15 and has the best goals percentage on the team. Even if he won’t win playoff MVP he’s worthy of some credit here.
(Top photo of Sergei Bobrovsky making a save against Jack Eichel: Jeff Bottari / NHLI via Getty Images)
