Known as a unicorn, a two-way star who shattered even the loftiest of expectations prior to arriving stateside, Shohei Ohtani’s upcoming free agency seemed (and likely still is) poised to be the biggest blockbuster in MLB history.
Running away with what will be his second American League MVP award, the Los Angeles Angels star left his 23rd start of the year early on Wednesday, with the club announcing later in the day that Ohtani had sustained a torn UCL in his pitching elbow.
While Ohtani will continue to play as the Angels’ designated hitter for the remainder of the season, the injury is the phenom’s second of its kind, with Ohtani previously undergoing Tommy John surgery following the 2018 season, his rookie year.
The injury significantly shifts the climate of the entire free agency market, with predictions of a contract that would shatter the MLB record of the 12-year, $426.5 million contract the Angels gave to his teammate, Mike Trout.
Leading the league with 44 home runs this season and having 124 long balls to his name in just the last three seasons, Ohtani still provides tremendous value both on and off the field, even as just a designated hitter.
Although numerous pitchers, including current Chicago Cubs’ starter Jameson Taillon, have come back from two Tommy John surgeries (though it is unclear if Ohtani will opt for a second surgery), the injury undoubtedly raises the level of concern of front offices, particularly those seen as leading contenders for the star’s services.
While the injury does cast uncertainty over both Ohtani’s market and the overall market, the path forward for the Cubs could perhaps be clearer.
Cubs Analysis
After a one-year, $17.5 million contract reset Cody Bellinger’s market from fledgling former superstar to elite middle-of-the-lineup bat with elite defense at two positions, the Cubs will likely have to spend big to hang on to the club’s most valuable player this season.
The Cubs should continue to pursue Shohei Ohtani, regardless of his injury, with the likely worst case scenario still being the addition of perhaps the game’s most elite power bat.
While that pursuit should remain an objective at the forefront of the upcoming offseason, the urgency to maintain Cody Bellinger seems to grow by the day as the Cubs continue to fight toward a playoff spot.
Just two years removed from an abysmal 2021 that saw Bellinger post a measly 44 OPS+, Belli has now re-emerged as one of the game’s premier hitters, with his .321 batting average in 2023 being 19 points higher than his .302 2021 slugging percentage.
Though not anticipated to spend much time at first base entering the season, the woes of both Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini combined with Matt Mervis’ struggles during his time in the big leagues not only forced Bellinger to spend time as a first baseman, but also necessitated the addition of Jeimer Candelario.
There is no guarantee that Bellinger’s phenomenal comeback season is a sign of him becoming that player for the next four-to-seven years, though there is no ignoring just how encouraging Bellinger’s 2023 has been.
Continuing to showcase the raw power that garnered him immediate nationwide attention as a rookie, Bellinger has taken the next step in 2023 to becoming one of the game’s overall toughest outs, in a way that hasn’t even translated to a high walk rate.
Becoming one of the game’s finest two-strike hitters, Bellinger holds an incredible .343 batting average on an 0-2 count, and overall is hitting .295/.332/.440 with two strikes on the season.
The clutch statistics have held up well for Belli as well, holding an .879 OPS with runners in scoring position and a daunting .962 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position.
Unfazed by big moments and already filled with postseason experience despite being just 28 years old, the best-case scenario in signing the former MVP to a long-term deal is locking down a star in his prime, a deal that would perhaps pair well chronologically with the seven-year, $177 million pact Dansby Swanson signed before this season.
While still not in line for anywhere close to as large of a deal as Ohtani is, Bellinger’s market will likely be incredibly competitive, perhaps more so now in the wake of Ohtani’s injury.
Though Bellinger will likely see a handful of offers from three-to-five years that give him a high annual value, offering Bellinger a longer deal, while more risky, could be the difference in landing him this winter.
Such a deal could very well exceed the franchise-record eight-year, $184 million contract given to Jason Heyward ahead of the 2016 season, though spending of that caliber will likely become more necessary to keep pace with the deep pockets of the Mets, Padres and Dodgers, to name a few.
Partnered with longtime big-money agent Scott Boras, a contract of over $200 million will likely be sought, especially placing Bellinger’s resume next to comparable contracts such as the deals given to Marcus Semien (seven years, $175 million) and former Cub Kris Bryant (seven years, $182 million).
While the market to obtain Ohtani’s services is perhaps naturally limited to large market teams with the potential addition of the Seattle Mariners, a much larger net will likely be cast for Bellinger’s market.
On top of the Cubs being an obvious suitor and fit for the former MVP, it’s reasonable to believe that both teams in this year’s playoff hunt (Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies) and teams hoping to take the next step this offseason (Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals) will be vying for Bellinger’s services.
Sitting at 69-61, a season-high eight games above .500 after Sunday’s win, the Cubs still have plenty of areas they hope to address this offseason.
Retaining key offensive pieces, bolstering a questionable rotation and adding to middle-inning relief will all likely be on the Cubs’ agenda this offseason.
Despite the odds not entirely in the Cubs’ favor to acquire Ohtani to begin with, the superstar’s injury should not deter the Cubs from pursuing and offering a contract to him.
However, the perhaps limitless ceiling to what could be offered to Ohtani is no more, and teams are almost certain to be more measured in their approach to him on the market.
With uncertainty surrounding Ohtani’s market and the Cubs perhaps lowering their potential maximum offer to the star, prioritizing a long-term pact with Cody Bellinger may give the North Siders a middle-of-the-lineup veteran superstar to build around for years to come.
