Russia is regrouping its forces in preparation for a potential Ukrainian push into Crimea, according to an assessment by the British Ministry of Defence.
Following an order by Russia for troops to retreat from the western portion of the southern Kherson region in Ukraine on November 10 across the Dnieper River, forces have shifted to prioritizing the refitting, reorganization and preparation of defenses across other parts of Ukraine, the U.K. defense ministry said in its latest assessment of the conflict on Friday.
Russian units have constructed new trench systems near the border of Crimea, as well as close to the Seversky Donets River between the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the eastern Donbas region, the ministry said.
“Some of these locations are up to 60km (37 miles) behind the current front line, suggesting that Russian planners are making preparations in case of further major Ukrainian breakthroughs.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to take back Crimea—which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014—hours after a counteroffensive in the Kherson region was launched at the end of August.
Zelensky said during a televised address on August 29 that Ukraine’s military had “kept the goal” of recapturing Crimea since Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed the Black Sea peninsula.
“This war, which began with Russia’s occupation of our Crimea, with an attempt to seize Donbas, must end precisely there—in the liberated Crimea, in the liberated cities of Donbas, with our troops reaching the state border of Ukraine,” said Zelensky. “We have always kept this goal in mind. We do not forget about it.”
“This will happen,” Zelensky continued. “This is ours. And just as our society understands it, I want the occupiers to understand it, too. There will be no place for them on Ukrainian land… The occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed. The invaders know it well.”
The Ukrainian leader warned Russian troops to either flee or surrender “if they want to survive.”
Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told Newsweek that he believes Ukraine may attempt to recapture Crimea, given that it is successful in retaking territory it has lost since Putin launched his full-scale invasion on February 24.
“The next phase is going to be them trying to push further down to take the eastern side of the [Dnieper] river so they can control the [Dnieper] river, because if you just control one side, it’s very difficult to float any grain barges, for instance, down that river because they could be subject to Russian attacks,” he said.
“I think, step one is really regaining that the territory lost since since February. And then if that happens, then I think Crimea and the rest of the Donbas then become a broader question, in which, whether Ukraine would go on to Crimea—I think there’s some potential for that.”
Newsweek has contacted Russia’s foreign ministry for comment.
